"As Essex County goes, so goes the Nation" is a maxim that accurately captures what has happened in every Presidential election in the 21st Century. For seven presidential elections in a row, starting in 1996, the Essex voters have picked the President-to-be.
Those Presidents? Clinton, Bush, O'Bama, Trump, and Biden. Interestingly, that list consists of three Democrats and two Republicans, which means that 21st Century Essex County voters are not tied to one party or another. They swing back and forth, just like the nation as a whole.
That's right. Essex County, NY, is a notorious back-and-forth Swing County. One election we give the Republican a Majority, and next time it's a Democrat.
We don't get much attention as a bellwether county, or an indicator of how the Election is going to turn out because we are swallowed up in New York State's strong overall Democratic majority. The last time the Empire State went for a Republican was in 1984 when Ronald Regan won.
As for Essex County's perfect record at picking the national winner, that is a relatively recent thing. Until 1996 (Bill Clinton's second term), Essex County only once voted for a Democrat -- when Lyndon Johnson ran against Barry Goldwater back in 1964. Before that, NEVER. Through all those years of Franklin D. Roosevelt (a New Yorker himself) and many other Democratic presidents, Essex County remained locked in on the Republican line.
JFK in 1960? Nope.
Woodrow Wilson in World War I? No thanks.
Andrew Jackson, the great Populist? No way.
In the past, Essex County often was politically at odds with the rest of the country. Not anymore. In the old days, politicians used to say, "As Maine goes, so goes the Nation," because Maine voted for its Governor in September, and that outcome often predicted November national trends. What will happen this year is unknown.
There are approximately 25,000 voters registered in the County now, about 10,500 Republicans and 7,500 Democrats, with another 5,500 people not enrolled in either major party. But people can still register to vote until Oct. 26. To reach the helpful Essex Board of Elections, call 518-873-3474. Early voting starts Oct. 26. And Election Day is Nov. 5.
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